| India has become
"virtually self-sufficient" in its missile programme enabling it to avoid
international export control regime and difficulties arising out of
foreign involvement in its programme, a US Congressional body has said.
Ever since the 1998 Pokharan detonations, India's
decision making is a key factor in regional stability in South Asia, the
Congressional Research Services (CRS) said in a report.
The CRS, which advises the Congress, attributes this
self-sufficiency to the fact that "most likely in anticipation of the
Missile Technology Control Regime, India went on what was described by
some analysts as a shopping spree for gyroscopes, accelerometers, and
motion simulators from suppliers in the US, Germany, France and Sweden.
"India then reverse-engineered these high quality
foreign missile components, and that was a key factor in her subsequent
self-sufficiency."
On the assumption that American interests require a
balance between India and Pakistan and that India should not compare
itself with China, CRS says that ever since the 1998 nuclear tests in
South Asia, it has appeared that India's decision-making is a key factor
in shaping regional stability.
According to the Pentagon, "India's development of
medium-range ballistic missiles is motivated by its desire to be
recognized as a great power and strategic competitor with China."
China, says CRS, seems content with its existing
deterrent against India, and Pakistan's limited resources appear to
constrain its ability to initiate an Indo-Pakistan arms race.
"Thus, a key variable in the future evolution of
South Asian nuclear proliferation is India's strategic intention in
relation to China."
One of the "more dangerous scenarios," says CRS, is one in which India
actively seeks to gain nuclear parity with China by building a larger
nuclear arsenal and long-range delivery force.
"In the middle term, the deployment of Agni missiles
capable of striking China's eastern population centres could spur Beijing
to re-target more nuclear ores to the south and likewise move Islamabad to
seek some form of parity in this arena, "thus potentially setting in
motion a full-blown arms race on the Asian Sub-Continent", the report
says.
Moreover, it says, "some observers" suggest that US
sales of Theatre Missile Defence systems in Asia — or the deployment of a
national system covering US Territory — could spur further ballistic
missile proliferation in South Asia.
In contrast to the "proliferation pessimism"
expressed by some US Government officials, especially those in the State
Department, says CRS, "Bush Administration officials have been more muted
in their criticism of South Asian strategic arsenals."
Some experts believe, says CRS, that India acquired
Sukhoi-30MKI aircraft from Russia, with a reported capacity to carry an
8,000 kg payload, and with a normal range of 3,200 km and an air-to-air
refuelling range of about 7,000 km, gives India a nuclear deep strike
capability .
"Some experts believe that India acquired the Sukhoi
to counter China's deep-strike capability", the report observes.
While not a weapon or delivery system, says CRS,
India's satellites contribute to its strategic capabilities by providing a
strategic early warning capability that could help ensure the
survivability of its nuclear forces and also help improve India's military
command, control, communication and intelligence capacities.
Agni III, says CRS, is believed to have a range of
5,000 km (a range of approximately 4,000 km would be required for a
missile to reach Beijing from India) and "is presently assessed to be
under development."
Without identifying them, CRS says "senior Indian
defence officials reportedly claim that the Agni III is a 'China-specific'
missile and not intended for use against Pakistan." |
