NEW DELHI -- There is a tendency, distressingly familiar among the global fraternity of liberals, to shy away from facing awkward realities. India is no exception to this escapism. In the aftermath of the two bomb blasts that killed at least 50 people and injured another 160 in the center of Bombay -- India's largest city and the nerve center of its entrepreneurial culture -- there are some self-serving explanations doing the rounds. The first is that Monday's explosions constitute the militant Muslim reaction to the riots in Gujarat in March 2002. More bizarre is the suggestion that they coincided with the release of a report by the Archaeological Survey of India suggesting that a 10th century Hindu temple predated a 16th century mosque demolished by Hindu activists in 1993.

Compelling as these theories are, they willfully skirt a grim phenomenon -- the expansion of Islamist terror networks into the heart of India. Monday's fierce explosions in Bombay were not isolated occurrences. They were preceded by five blasts, the first on Dec. 2 last year, that have killed 17 people and injured 189. Although no group has claimed responsibility for Monday's terror, the earlier incidents have been traced to activists of the outlawed Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) and Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT). Among those arrested was a government doctor, Jalees Ansari, which clearly suggested that the terror networks had expanded from the underworld to embrace a section of the Muslim middle-class.

For many Indians, the involvement of a person like Dr. Ansari in the LeT operations has been an eye-opener. For long, enlightened public opinion has maintained that ideologically motivated Islamist terror had bypassed Indian Muslims -- who constitute 13% of the country's population. True, there was a separatist insurgency in the Muslim-majority state of Jammu and Kashmir being sustained by Pakistan, but it was thought that Muslims in the rest of India had spurned the militant revivalist movements plaguing Islamic countries in Asia. Earlier acts of terrorism, such as the blasts in Bombay 10 years ago, were blamed on Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) working in conjunction with the underworld. Even the attack on the American Center in Calcutta in January 2002 was traced to a Dubai-based mafioso specializing in kidnapping and extortion.

It is no longer possible to maintain this fiction. Indian intelligence agencies are convinced that the wave of international jihadi terror has now touched India. The new terrorists are not preoccupied with the "liberation" of Kashmir from India, their objective is a wider jihad aimed at the re-establishment of a Caliphate and a war against the West, Israel and India. The ideological motivation of these individuals is not dissimilar to those who carried out the Sept. 11 attacks and the bombing in Bali. Groups like the LeT, with its roots in Pakistan, have been complemented by homegrown organizations such as SIMI, the Muslim Defence Force with a network in southern India and the Indian Muslim Mohammedi Mujahedeen. According to one intelligence estimate, nearly 300 Indian Muslim youth have had jihadi training in Pakistan and Afghanistan. They constitute a powerful fifth column in India.

To separate these proponents of "political" Islam from devout religious practitioners is not always possible. In formal organizational terms, it is impossible to link the terror groups with religious seminaries. Yet, like the Finsbury Park mosque in North London that spawned recruits for jihad in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the breeding ground for terror networks are some otherwise innocuous religious orders.

Heading the list is the ultra-orthodox Ahl-e-Hadis, with its center in the town of Moradabad in north India, whose followers dominate the ranks of the LeT. Not far behind is the Tabligh Jamaat whose followers torched to death 51 Hindus inside a railway compartment in Godhra in February 2002. A vicious anti-Muslim riot followed this carnage in the state of Gujarat.

Further inciting young Muslims to rise up against a debased, materialist world are itinerant Islamic preachers from other countries. Four months ago, authorities in Gujarat estimated that 107 Islamic preachers from as far afield as Indonesia, Sudan and Saudi Arabia were active simultaneously. The reason is obvious. Following last year's riots, Muslims in Gujarat bear terrible emotional scars that propel many of them into contemplating revenge against Hindus.

It has become customary for the Indian government to blame Pakistan's ISI for remote-controlled acts of subversion. There is ample evidence to suggest the ISI, which is almost like a state within a state in Pakistan, is hyperactive in trying to convert Muslim discontent into subversion. It seeks opportunities to create confusion, through tactics that range from distributing fake Indian currency notes through Nepal and Thailand to plotting political assassinations. Certainly, the easy passage of jihadi recruits from India to training camps in Pakistan would not have been possible without a measure of ISI involvement.

Following the post-Sept. 11 international concern over terrorism, the ISI's activities have been less brazen and marked by what one counter-terrorism official in India calls "a high degree of deniability." Yet, its role as a facilitator of Islamist incubators across India cannot be underestimated. The ISI's role in instigating the Taliban rump against the Hamid Karzai regime in Afghanistan -- despite President Musharraf's avowed commitment to anti-terrorist operations -- suggest that its activities do not always stick to the foreign-policy guidelines of Pakistan.

The Bombay blasts have heralded the entry of global Islamist terror into India. For the moment, the diabolical objective of provoking a Hindu backlash against the Muslim minority has not succeeded. But if the campaign persists, public pressure in an election year will force the government to consider retaliation against what is regarded in India as the epicenter of Islamist terrorism -- Pakistan. Like the suicide bombers of Hamas, Bombay's terrorists may have already derailed a fragile peace process involving India and Pakistan.

Mr. Dasgupta, a Delhi-based political analyst and former managing editor of India Today magazine, is writing a book on Hindu nationalism.

Updated August 27, 2003

Explosive Used in India Blasts
Points to Militants, Police Say

BOMBAY, India -- A powerful type of explosive, regarded as a favorite of Islamic guerrillas in Kashmir, was used in Bombay's twin bombings, police said Wednesday -- bolstering government claims that a hard-line Muslim militant group carried out the city's worst terrorist attack in a decade.

At least 51 people were killed and 156 wounded in Monday's explosions outside the Gateway of India, a historical landmark, and Zaveri Bazaar, a gold and diamond market.

Police Commissioner Ranjit Sharma told the Associated Press that preliminary investigations indicated the explosive, RDX, was used in both the blasts. "Forensic reports are awaited, but we suspect that a small quantity of RDX is responsible for creating this damage," Mr. Sharma said.

He said the large number of casualties and damage suggested the use of RDX.

Deputy Prime Minister Lal Krishna Advani on Tuesday blamed the bombings on Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, a pro-Pakistan Kashmiri militant group.

"The use of RDX indicates that this is the handiwork of Islamic militants. We are suspecting Lashkar-e-Tayyaba," said Mr. Sharma.

Indian security officials say RDX is almost always used by Islamic militants in Kashmir, where separatists are fighting Indian forces.

RDX was last known to have been used in Bombay in March 1993 serial bombings that killed more than 250 people.

RDX is a white crystalline solid usually used in mixtures with other explosives, oils or waxes, and is rarely used alone. It is a highly lethal military explosive, packing more than 150% of the power of TNT. Two pounds of RDX in a bomb can blow up a large commercial aircraft.

Bombay has been hit by five other bombings in the past six months, but none of the bombs contained RDX. Police said ammonium nitrate and gelatin were used in the earlier bombs.

On Wednesday, about 1,000 Hindu nationalists marched silently from Gateway of India, where one of Monday's bombs hidden in a taxi was detonated, to offer their sympathy for the dead. The marchers belonged to the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, and its ally, the even more nationalistic Shiv Sena.

"We won't shout any slogans. It is a silent march. We want to pay homage to the victims of the bomb blast, both Hindus and Muslims," said Rajiv Kori, a member of the Shiv Sena.

It was an unusual show of unity by the Shiv Sena, a group better known for its disdain of India's minority Muslims.

The bombs were placed in two taxis that were hired for the day. One of the drivers was killed in the blast but the other driver escaped as he was strolling outside after parking in front of the Gateway of India.

Police are looking for five suspects, including two women who hired the taxi that went to the gateway.

On Tuesday, Mr. Advani stopped short of saying that Pakistan had sent the bombers, but accused it of sponsoring terrorism since 1971.

The comments were likely to undermine a fragile peace process between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. They have fought three wars, two over the divided Kashmir province.

The other recent explosions in Bombay have been blamed on Lashkar-e-Tayyaba and its ally, the Students' Islamic Movement of India.

Pakistan, which banned Lashkar-e-Tayyaba last year, has condemned this week's bombings and rejected Mr. Advani's accusations.

Information Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed said Mr. Advani "often levels baseless allegations against Pakistan."

"Pakistan has never supported terrorism in India," he said.

Relations between India and Pakistan have been improving in recent months. A peace process was back on track after being broken off when the two nations nearly went to war over an attack on the Indian Parliament in late 2001. Since then, diplomatic ties have been restored, buses are crossing the border and officials are talking about resuming air links.

Copyright (c) 2003 The Associated Press

Updated August 27, 2003 8:55 a.m.

India Security Forces Set Hotel On Fire In Kashmir

SRINAGAR, India (AP)--Security forces in India's portion of Kashmir set fire Thursday to a hotel where suspected Islamic guerrillas holed up during an overnight gunfight that left six people dead and eight wounded, police said.

The clash between guerrillas and security forces broke out shortly after a meeting Wednesday between Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and top administrators from 35 Indian states and territories that took place just 3 kilometers away. The violence came despite tight security for Vajpayee's visit to the strife-torn Himalayan region.

Two guerrillas hurled a grenade outside Srinagar's main telephone exchange and took refuge in the hotel while security forces cordoned off the area, state police chief Gopal Sharma said.

The dead included the two rebels, a soldier, a former legislator whose office was located inside the hotel and his two guards, Sharma said. Eight other people were wounded, while 15 people who were inside the hotel at the time were evacuated, he said.

Al-Mansurian, a lesser-known guerrilla group, claimed responsibility for the telephone exchange explosion. In a telephone call to a local news agency, the group said the telephone exchange was the main target of attack.

More than a dozen guerrilla groups have been fighting since 1989 for Muslim-majority Kashmir's independence from predominantly Hindu India or its merger with mostly Muslim Pakistan. More than 63,000 people have died in the conflict.

Updated August 28, 2003 12:10 a.m.

FEER(9/4) Indian Bombings -2: Pakistan Tensions Remain Low

  (From The Far Eastern Economic Review)

In spite of the attacks in Mumbai, however, the current process of rapprochement between India and Pakistan appears to be rolling slowly forward. An Indian delegation left for Pakistan as planned the day after the bombings for meetings to discuss the restart of commercial flights between the two countries, which India halted after the parliament attack. A group of Pakistani businessmen and politicians is also scheduled to visit India next month.

"If you look at the reaction from the government, it's been very careful," says J.N. Dixit, a former foreign secretary. "There's no sign of a pullback" from the general trend toward restoring ties.

Businessmen and market watchers, meanwhile, said they expected few long-term consequences from the bombings. Somewhere in the overall formula of deciding on an investment, they may "rachet up the risk factor of Mumbai a little more" compared to other cities, says Anand Mahindra, president of the Confederation of Indian Industry.

On the positive side, however, Mahindra says that investors can take comfort from the "business as usual" response that prevailed in the aftermath of the attacks. Instead of focusing on the bombing, stock traders focused on the underlying strength of India's economy, which is projected to grow more than 6% in the current financial year.

Another reassuring sign was the absence of any clashes between Hindus and Muslims in the city following the blasts. "I don't see any sign of heightened tensions at present," says M.N. Singh, a former police commissioner of Mumbai. "But if such attacks continue, you cannot be too sure."

Meanwhile, Bastien, who witnessed the blast from his office window, took the following day off to help try to digest what he had seen. Now, he says, "I'm thinking a bit differently about how safe Bombay is."

Updated August 27, 2003 5:19 p.m.

FEER(9/4) Editorial: Govt Probes Mumbai's Bombing Tactics

  (From The Far Eastern Economic Review)

FOLLOWING THE bombings in Mumbai on August 25, one instinct is to quickly find someone or some group to hold responsible for the atrocity. In that respect, several names were quickly mentioned in press reports. And certainly Deputy Prime Minister Lal Krishna Advani was quick to accuse an Islamic militant group based in Pakistan of involvement. There are two problems with all this. First is the scarcity of any evidence just yet. Second, such groups have a narrow interest: Kashmir. Their acts of terrorism to date are restricted to the Indian side of Kashmir and to New Delhi; active Kashmiri militants in Mumbai are almost as unlikely as in Madras. Moreover, car bombs are not the choice tactic for Kashmiri militants. Usually, they launch hit-and-run raids in which they are prepared to die. That was the case with the attack on parliament in December 2001. The bombs in Mumbai don't fit the pattern.

They do, however, better match a series of relatively small bomb attacks Mumbai recently has seen. Last year, a bomb on a bus killed three people; earlier this year 12 people died in a blast that tore through a train compartment; and in July, another bus bombing claimed two lives. Police have arrested several suspected members of a group called the Students Islamic Movement of India in connection with those incidents. The alleged members of Simi apparently are all Indians, not Pakistanis -- though Simi might have sympathies for the Muslim cause in Kashmir.

The timing of the attacks also lends weight to the belief that they may be locally instigated. On the same day, a court received a long-awaited archaeological study of a site in Ayodhya. Although as we go to press the report has not yet been made public -- doubtless because of the sensitivity of the findings -- accounts are that it says there is evidence of Hindu-like ruins dating as far back as the 10th century under what was once a Muslim mosque, razed by a Hindu mob in 1992. That act sparked a series of sectarian riots across the country that left 2,000 dead. A dispute over the site continues to this day and is now before the courts, which commissioned the study that now appears to favour the Hindu claim.

These are early days yet in investigations; so far, the police have refused to speculate. But after the bombings in Bali and Jakarta, suspected of being at least regionally inspired, there is a temptation to blame the Mumbai carnage on outside militants. Ironically, today's greater focus on terrorism comes in parallel with a loss in sophistication in people's understanding of the complexities of individual societies. We don't yet know who was responsible for Mumbai. The responsible thing to do is to avoid speculation that might inflame the tit-for-tat violence that India often has seen in the past half-century.

Updated August 27, 2003 5:18 p.m.